Economics/Statistics Whiz Ted Seto: Lawyer Shortage Coming

In 10 years, after all this scambusting has turned to dust and legal education has retrenched into the dark ages, don't blame me when you can't find anyone to defend your parental rights. Don't blame me for your unjust incarceration or the fact that Grandma died during the 10-month waiting period for will drafting and now that pervert Uncle Herbert will inherit the fortune. Don't blame me when you and Shrewish Sheri can't get a divorce. Don't blame me when no one's chasing your ambulance. Don't blame me when your government grinds to an unproductive halt.

We're trying to warn you right now: there's a lawyer shortage coming.

I give you Ted Seto, Loyola Law Professor and economics/statistics maestro. In 2011, Seto remained unconvinced that legal education had any serious, long-term problems. Obviously, the man proved correct in his maverick stance and he has the utmost credibility on these issues. You should pay attention to him.

Now, Seto is claiming this:

Unless something truly extraordinary has happened to non-cyclical demand, a degrees-awarded-per-capita analysis suggests that beginning in fall 2015 and intensifying into 2016 employers are likely to experience an undersupply of law grads, provided that the economic recovery continues. To some extent, this will be buffered by recent oversupply. If matriculations remain at projected 2013 levels, however, once the market has absorbed the recent oversupply, a degrees-awarded-per-capita analysis suggests that long-term demand for law grads will outstrip long-term supply into the indefinite future.

This makes perfect, undeniable sense, as the number of law degrees awarded has always had a direct relationship to the actual market demand for lawyers. And who could deny Seto's premise that "[d]emand for legal services, however, probably increases as population increases?"

No I, said the blogger. More people, more legal problems, more lawyers. You poopieheads try to make this shit too complicated.